Weekly Raid Weekend Edition #2
It's the Holiday Season
Happy Holiday Season Traders!
This is hands down my favorite season of the year. Family, Friends, and Food are always around the house so trading starts to happen less and less. That said, we still have some money to make, so let’s take a look at what is going on this week.
Also, an announcement, I am just about done with my squeeze scanner. For the time being, I will post daily updates on my Twitter account and try to remember to do it on Substack as well. Eventually, I will create a separate daily email for those scans daily. They have so far proven to be reliable with a roughly 70% win rate given my trading parameters. If you scalp them the day after the signal it’s actually significantly higher. So stay tuned.
Additionally, the volatility tool I showed last week is still in the works, I am hoping to have that done after the first of the year. Some of the signals that thing has put out have returned upwards of 1000% (on options).
First, let’s dive into some personal finance tips for the season. Money is tight this year across the board so many folks and retailers are expecting less actual spending this year. Thats probably for the better for your wallet and sanity’s sake.
Black Friday/Cyber Monday
This isn’t a tip so much as a reminder. If you don’t need it, don’t buy it. Just because something is on sale doesn’t mean it’s a deal for you. In addition, Black Friday sales seemed pretty lackluster this year. AMZN 0.00%↑ has some decent ones, and I expect Cyber Monday to have some even better ones. WMT 0.00%↑ and HD 0.00%↑ also had a few good bargains, but I am hoping tomorrow (Monday) has something better in store for us.
One tip that I would like to share is that if you need a new Credit Card or Bank account, this is often a good time to open it. A lot of companies will use the shopping months to roll out lower-interest card promos and high-interest savings account promos. Just because it’s not a physical product doesn’t mean you can’t find it on a Black Friday bargain.
The Week Ahead
With Thanksgiving behind us, we have a full week of trading again. Below is a snapshot of the more important news this week.
ISM on Friday could be a pretty eventful release as could all the OPEC meetings this week. In addition to news, one of the main things I would watch out for this week is volume. As we head into the end of the year, volume gets progressively worse. If you have to trade, try and stick with names that have solid volume behind them to provide liquidity to exit with.
Finally what I am watching this week. First I should note that I don’t often trade a lot in the month of December. Through experience, I have arrived at the fact that I can only mess up the year. If it was a good year, I will end up giving it back, if it was a bad year I will only make it worse. There are two exceptions to this, first, my long-term account always continues to get additional capital and trades. The second is for cash flow, I continue to sell puts and spreads to create some additional cash flow through the holiday season. So the watchlist below will be mostly from my long-term/cash flow accounts.
UNG 0.00%↑ - this is the only speculative trade on the week. I am long a few hundred shares of equity around 5.95 a share. Hold time for this is roughly 3 weeks or a return trip to roughly $7/share.
ET 0.00%↑ - This is both in equity and cash-secured puts. They have a nice div yield and I want to be long a few hundred more shares all said and done.
TSLA 0.00%↑ - I am looking for a spike to short a bear call spread and try and add some income to the week. I will look for probably 260 to be the spot to sell unless I see some huge selling that convinces me to do it lower.
Lastly is the $SPX. The SPY 0.00%↑ older brother, has daily options and if you write some way OTM spreads heading into the afternoon, it’s a pretty simple way to make some daily cash flow with limited risk. The sweet spot I have been watching lately is between $25-$75/spread across a few different sets of contracts. The aim for me is between $100-$200 a day in income.
As always Good luck and Trade Well