Weekly Raid Weekend Edition #1
Wild and Crazy Bonds
Happy Weekend Traders.
I trust this email finds you well. Hopefully, this past week wasn’t too trying for everyone. There was a lot of opportunity to be had. Right off the bat, you probably noticed a new look, I am back to substack as the email provider. You will notice no real difference other than the look for now. It is just an easier and nicer platform to use.
News and Earnings
Diving into the week ahead, we have a pretty busy news week. Housing Data is due out on Friday and that usually has a pretty strong impact on things. In addition, we have retail sales and data out mid-week and a few high-impact earnings releases due.
On the Earnings Front, we have Walmart WMT 0.00%↑ , TJX Companies TJX 0.00%↑, Target TGT 0.00%↑, and Home Depot HD 0.00%↑. These companies give us a huge window into retail spending and consumer behavior. Further than that Home Depot also can give us some insight into construction spending on the homeowner level. A lot of smaller contractors and homeowners rely on HD 0.00%↑ for their supplies.
More than the actual numbers this week. Keep an ear out for how these companies see the economy going over the next few quarters. Economists are by and larger full of shit, companies are not; their Profit depends on them forecasting as accurately as possible.
Charts and Macro
One thing that stood out last week was the bond auction. That 10-year was complete crap, and rates are going to feel it. I would not be surprised if we see some additional hikes coming as well as elevated rates for a longer period of time. Foreign interests are dumping treasuries with any yield over 10 years because short-dated curves supply a better return. This is a huge problem because the more inverted the curve remains the higher rates have to go on the long end to balance it out.
At a time when the Feds look to be borrowing more and more to fund larger and larger programs, it feels like we are heading for a disaster with the currency (assuming you believe we aren’t already there).
Finally, there are the Hedges of oil and Gold. This chart is courtesy of the Market Ear and is a few days old, but the spread is still just as wide.
Someone is wrong here, and my bet is still oil. I can’t imagine with a kinetic war in both the Middle East and Russia border that oil doesn’t catch some steam. We have complete incompetence in almost all Governmental bodies across the world, complete disregard for currencies, and a fundamental crisis of patriotism in a lot of these countries, ours included. So I see the oil trade being solid through the beginning of next year.
Stocks, Bonds, and Other things Tradable
TSLA 0.00%↑ still is at the top of my list. I can see it really giving us some tradeable moves in the coming weeks and months. The Volume Profile for the year is just ripe with spots to initiate a trade
Next up is CL which I can see giving us a pretty easy run back to the mid 80’s
Finally, for you, Crypto traders out there is $BTC. Below is the “Wall St cheat sheet” chart compared to BTC. Pretty interesting stuff if you ask me to head into a halving.
If you want more real-time trades follow me on Twitter where I post daily stuff about the market and wealth building.