Weekly Raid #73 - The Fix is In
Happy Thursday Traders.
Yesterday’s little event with options data certainly has a lot of people speculating around the market.
I saw a ton of “See it’s rigged” posts on X, in the grand scheme of things it doesn’t really matter if it’s rigged or not, but more on that below.
News of the day
Today we have a lot of news to keep an eye out for. Durable goods orders are at the top of the list with a window into the new manufacturing activity for the month. I am not sure it matters at this point if I am being honest, as a bunch of these numbers just don’t seem to match with reality.
Pending home sales is the next important report out at 10 a.m. and I think this could have some significance. Yesterday new home sales were a beat, and if this comes in as a beat as well, I think it could be seen pretty negatively in the medium term as inventory is still disappearing faster than it is being added to the market.
This concept that the market is “Rigged” and that its what is preventing you from making money in it is insane.
Two things: First the market is 100% “rigged” or “Fixed” or whatever you want to call it. That doesn’t mean that you can’t extract some capital from it. Second, if you are using that as an excuse, there are decent odds you’re just in the wrong trade and didn’t close it out.
There are tons of things that are “rigged” against us but we make them work anyway. The US healthcare system is 100% rigged towards big companies but has saved at least 3 members of my family from near-certain death. I wouldn’t trust them to wash my truck, but in an emergency their services are crucial.
Casinos are “rigged”, the house has an unnatural edge in many of the games. That doesn’t mean professional gamblers can’t eke out a good living beating those odds. Much like trading its all about money management.
My point here is that just because something is rigged doesn’t mean it can’t be useful. You just need to know that going in. So here is your heads up, the market is 100% rigged towards huge banks and market makers. They have a huge house edge, don’t have to follow the rules we do, and have a near-infinite amount of capital plus all the bailouts they could ever need.
All of this information is completely useless to us traders, I know plenty of people who pull 6 or 7-figure incomes out of the market annually. You can too, they aren’t special. Just know the game you are in is against you and take your money and run.
This market was a bundle of shit yesterday with OPRA not being able to process options for a good part of the day. As a result, most of yesterday’s watchlist is still in play, keep an eye on those names.
In addition, we will take a look at the following:
We are entering the Danger zone on NVDA. We are to gapping down premarket (at least at the time of this writing) to around the 411 mark. 408 is still a pretty solid line in the sand for me, but I will need to see volume follow the move down. I am hands-off until we take out 408 and recover….or drop it and run.
COIN I am watching as it continues to chop around its 50-day moving average. I will look for a push through it to see how it handles itself and then look to trade it from there. Of course, if it bounces the buy could be back on.
AMZN is in the low-volume node, so it could be game on for a rundown. My ultimate goal would be to see the 100 area in place, but there are plenty of stopping points between here and there. Look for all the low-volume nodes and High-volume nodes for areas of potential bounces.
As always trade well and Good Luck
As always this is all for educational purposes only. You are solely responsible for your trades as I am for mine. Nothing in here should be construed as financial advice, but only educational content about the markets and my particular trading style.