Weekly Raid #31 - The Ole Freaky Friday
Happy Friday Traders
Due to some Family issues I will not be trading today but below is what I would be looking at if I was.
It’s a Friday, so remember to try not to make or break your week today.
News of the day
News is sparse but important today. We have UoM final consumer sentiment out at 10am eastern. With the poor housing data this week I would keep an eye on this to be a volatility producer.
Next up at 10:05 am (Damn fed always has to be just a little different), J Pow speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Lord only knows what he is going to say, but I am sure it will cause some volatility in the market. Keep your stops in place and don’t be afraid of 2 way trading today once he opens his pie hole.
Finally as we touched on above is the Jackson Hole Symposium. In addition to J Pow there will be plenty of other volatility producing conferences today.
Rates are still a serious issue in the markets. So similar to yesterday I will be watching the shorter dated bonds to watch for a reaction to J Pows speech and the rest of the symposium.
The 3 Month and 1 year are trading almost at parity which shows that investors require the same risk premium for every length between. This is significant because the 3 month should be trading significantly lower as they are typically seen as the “risk free” trade.
Today I would be watching NVDA for some additional downside. The Spike premarket yesterday caught a lot of people off guard and I think that its possible we are just seeing the beginning of a serious move down in NVDA. If an earnings report as strong as theirs didn’t keep the stock secured, we should probably buckle up for a bumpy ride. This is easy enough to play though, put debit or call credit spreads would pay handsomely and would remove the timing element of the trade.
BA had a hell of a fall yesterday, and while its bouncing slightly pre-market I would watch the tape and options flow to see if we still have some room to run. POC places us around 212 so that would be a great place to look to close if you are still in that trade.
PYPL is also getting added to the list today. We are below the value area for the year and I think if we breach 64 and hold we could see a return to POC around 74. This will be over the course of the coming days week though, not an immediate event.
As always its Friday, so if you had a green week buy some income, if it was a red week analyze your trades and see if it was your system or just a down week.
As always trade well and Good Luck.