Weekly Raid #21
Welcome to the first post from Beehiiv
Yesterday was a pretty great day in the market but it looks like we are gapping down this morning with the SPY down 3 handles before the open.
News of the day
All the broader US markets are off this morning on the back of a downgrade of several banks from Moody’s overnight. The heatmap below shows where we are sitting as of an hour before the Open. I would be wary of trading right off the open and would just want to watch a bit to see what the big boys do to digest the move.
There is no real high impact news due out today however there is the 3 year note auction at 1pm eastern and I think that could be pretty telling about where rates are heading.
I am still watching the 10year-3month rate as I showed in yesterdays post, and not much has changed on that. `
Todays macro look is on the UoM consumer Sentiment. We are at a current reading of 64.4 and while this is a vast improvement from the low at 50, it still is not historically strong, and is in fact lower now then some of the recessions we have had over the past few decades.
I think this could be an indicator that, while thing are improving economically, we are still in a fragile spot and any bump could send us reeling backwards. Even if it is just a temporary drop.
Another indicator to watch is Truck Tonnage. Trucks are the backbone of our supply lines in the US. If this number dips I would be very quick to pull back some capital and watch for a bit.
Watching MARA today with the markets down before the open. Will watch for some volume to come in and prices to move back into the mid 17’s.
TSLA I will be watching the gap below us at 240. We are gapping down premarket and if we keep the downward pressure one then I really done see a lot of stopping power on structure before 160. That's obviously a long way to fall so I think we will get a bounce way before that, but it will need to be from watching the tape.
AAPL is the same thing. We are down 10+% from the highs. The 176 handle is someplace I think we could see a solid bounce from from if the recent low breaks. If this holds I could see us test the other side of this months range around 186
As always trade well and Good Luck