Weekly Plan/Sunday Research
This weekend has been kinda light on the research front, I suspect once the FED announces this week there will be a plethora of new stuff to sift through. So the only research this weekend was stock charts.
Many of them are below and what I am looking at this week. At the very bottom is more than likely how I will trade this week, but as always that is subject to change on the fly.
Looking at the Spy I still feel we are overextended. We have the last two monthly POCs below us and the volume up here is pretty dubious at best. I would anticipate a pullback at some point into the 445 range and then back down to the upper 430’s below that. There have been a fairly large number of earnings beats lately, but that hasn’t stopped a drop after the release. As far as I can tell, a lot of these companies are still prepping for a slowdown in consumer spending.
I was waiting for a poke above 300 but that never came, and once it started to drop I could not get in fast enough last week. We stopped almost exactly at the previous monthly POC, which says something. I am starting to consider longs with this one, but I still think we have a little lower to go. So I am waiting for the 230-240 range to start initiating new positions.
GOOG 0.00%↑ has earnings this week, and I would expect them to mention AI about 100,000 times. Its been pretty range bound for the past few months and when this thing breaks I would expect it to be pretty energy packed. I will with through earnings but potentially see a condor on this name until a break. 115ish seems to be the lower bound, and 130 is the upper.
The plan for the week is pretty simple, I will be looking to trade lightly through the FED. They come out Wednesday, and I would anticipate another rate increase. I think even with inflation coming down, the Job market and RE market still have the FED spooked (straight conjecture). That would open the door for further rates later this year.
After the FED day I will be looking for stocks to trade both short puts and long calls on. I know short puts a pretty popular (they work really well) but I think until I feel more comfortable with the possible event risk I will continue to trade the long calls with a few long puts as protection.
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