Monday Morning Notes
Happy Monday on another week of trading
Earning kick-off in earnest this week so I guess we will see just how robust our economy really was last quarter. There are a few things I will be looking at today before I trade. First up is obviously the SPY
The POC is firmly below us on the Volume Profile, and we are still far from the normal distribution that you like to see on the longer time frames.
Personally, I think that this points to the possibility of a liquidation break back to POC before we continue a march further north (assuming we do at all).
Next up is the VIX. Not much to say on this one, it’s gotten absolutely pounded the past week or so. Currently sitting just under 14, If we see a pullback in the SPY we might see a spike, but it looks like the sell-off on the VIX will continue in the near term.
A few things I am watching for on this front though, first is Russia. Without getting into the politics of it, continued escalation in the region could be the catalyst for a volatility spike. They appear to have pulled out of the Black Sea Grain deal, so I am sure that will impact markets, even if it’s localized to Ag.
Second, OPEC has extended its voluntary cuts. I see two potential reasons for this, first, they see demand slowing so they are prepping for that decrease in it. Second, they are attempting to profiteer on the West’s delusional climate goals timeline. Personally, I think it is a little bit of both. Regardless of the reason, Crude spiked on the announcement so I will be watching COP and XOM today/this week.
Finally looking at sectors, rotation is on the left and Bias is on the right. Since this is still well before the Market opens, the data is as of close on Friday. Once we get adjusted on the open we will see how this looks.