Happy Monday Traders
Its looking like its going to be an exciting week this week. We have earnings and a a solid week of event risks.
Plan today is to be patient and really sit on hands.
I will be watching the open positions, for anything else please check out yesterdays post.
Earning on tap this week. It should be an exciting week in the market.
VXX is back at its lows, but is up a little in premarket. This is pretty common on Fed weeks. I would anticipate we see a pop through the FED. This will correlate to increased volatility (no Duh right.)
Finally My Gut Feelings.
This section is far from technical or well researched. It is just a feeling I am getting from watching the price action and volume over the past few weeks/month. Something does not feel right. I have been bearish in other bull runs, but still made money because price action and volume was solid and healthy. This seems different though. There are gaps in volume at price, the whole thing is a lower volume node, and overall trading volumes on the SPY have been pretty light (it is summer after all).
Further I am still seeing inflation in daily goods and services, and while the number is falling in the “official” report, people are still feeling the bite of it. Finally we have loans starting back up in September after a 3 YEAR hiatus. This is going to have an impact, how much of one I am not sure, but its going to do something.
I think that puts us in October or November to really see some pain potential in the SPOOS. In addition to that if the Fed raises rates one or two more times it would mean you can safely get 5+% on your money with as close to zero risk as possible. I am hearing almost everyone in my group of contemporaries and people I watch capital for ask to start to move larger portions into T-bills/CD’s to pick up the higher rates and lower risk. They money has to come from somewhere.